ICE Raids Drained Billions From Local Economies, New Study Finds
Wharton School study found ICE raids cost the national economy between $3 billion and $14 billion in foregone spending in one year
Economic damage was concentrated near raid sites but did not dissipate over time, and was not offset by increases in online shopping
Connecticut passed legislation restricting ICE activity in the state as the Trump regime’s enforcement shifted from targeting individuals with criminal convictions to broader sweeps
The impacts of overbearing immigration enforcement under the Trump administration in 2025 cost the national economy up to $14 billion in one year, according to a new study from President Donald Trump’s alma mater, the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
The new report comes as ICE overreach has led to the deaths of a number of individuals, including American citizens, at the hands of immigration officials, spurring Connecticut officials to pass legislation putting new restrictions on their activities in the state.
In the report, authored by Exequiel Hernandez, who holds the role of Marx and Bernice Garchik Family Presidential Associate Professor at the Wharton School, a direct correlation is found between ICE raids and foot traffic and spending data in the region.
Specifically, in areas near metropolitan ICE raids – with more than 5,300 tracked – the raids caused foot traffic to fall 2.7% and spending to decline 6.2% per week. Over the course of a year, that was found to drag the economy down by at least $3 billion and as much as $14 billion in foregone spending.
Declines are most intense near sites of raids, but don’t dissipate over time. “The breadth of the local economic damage mirrors the breadth of the enforcement approach,” Hernandez writes.
In developing the study, Hernandez monitored enforcement shifting from focused to general shortly after Trump retook the White House, as the number of arrested individuals without criminal convictions overtook those with criminal convictions.
In a dataset of 5,388 ICE raids, cell phone mobility records and card transaction data from 2024 to 2026, Hernandez found that as the Trump administration increased its approach, economic activity dropped both with workers no longer traveling to work and customers not patronizing stores in areas where raids took place.
In-store traffic was not replaced by online shopping, Hernandez found, meaning the presence of raids cut down economic activity overall.
Hernandez’s study also notes raids were increasingly located in metropolitan areas predominantly supported by Democrats and more likely to have immigrant populations.
“In its first year, the new regime produced significant and persistent negative economic spillovers for virtually all residents and types of businesses in targeted areas,” the report concluded.
By Joe O’Leary